Allow betting on long‑horizon, technical topics that hedge real risks or produce useful forecasts, while restricting quick‑resolution, easy‑to‑place bets that attract addictive play. This balances innovation and public discomfort: prioritize markets that aggregate expertise and deter those that mainly deliver action. Pilot new market types with sunset clauses to test net value before broad rollout.
— It gives regulators a simple, topic‑and‑time‑based rule to unlock information markets without igniting anti‑gambling backlash, potentially improving risk management and public forecasting.
jessicata
2026.01.16
68% relevant
The article demonstrates forecasting errors and selection effects in prominent public predictions; this strengthens the case for regulated, horizon‑gated prediction markets or structured Bayesian adjudication (as alternative evidence channels) to aggregate expert and lay priors with clearer calibration and fewer rhetorical noise effects.
Tyler Cowen
2026.01.14
72% relevant
The author notes Polymarket pricing (~23%), showing prediction markets are already being used to price major geopolitical events; this connects to the existing idea about how to regulate and use prediction markets (time‑horizon rules, targeted markets) and flags practical governance questions when markets price territorial acquisitions.
Scott Alexander
2026.01.13
86% relevant
The author highlights that most current volume is degenerate gambling (sports) while the societally valuable geopolitical markets remain constrained by regulation and platform location; that maps directly to the existing proposal to license prediction markets by topic and horizon (favor long‑horizon, decision‑relevant markets) as a way to preserve value while limiting harms.
BeauHD
2026.01.07
86% relevant
Torres’s bill is a concrete regulatory intervention in the exact domain that the 'License prediction markets by horizon' idea addresses: it seeks to define and restrict certain kinds of betting activity on political outcomes and would create a statutory regime to govern markets that previously operated largely outside securities law. The article cites Polymarket profits on Maduro’s removal and proposes banning officials from trading on material nonpublic political information — the same policy space the existing idea recommends time‑and‑topic rules for.
PW Daily
2026.01.06
85% relevant
The piece cites a Polymarket account that placed a large bet on Maduro being 'out' and made huge returns after the U.S. operation; it also notes a House Democrat introducing legislation to ban officials from such bets. This directly connects to regulation and licensing proposals for prediction markets that the existing idea proposes (time‑horizon restrictions and gating high‑resolution short‑term markets).
Robin Hanson
2025.10.09
100% relevant
Hanson’s criteria—"allow long‑term technical topics that matter"; restrict "easy to make, quickly resolved" lay bets—offered as a policy template.