License prediction markets by horizon

Updated: 2025.10.09 12D ago 1 sources
Allow betting on long‑horizon, technical topics that hedge real risks or produce useful forecasts, while restricting quick‑resolution, easy‑to‑place bets that attract addictive play. This balances innovation and public discomfort: prioritize markets that aggregate expertise and deter those that mainly deliver action. Pilot new market types with sunset clauses to test net value before broad rollout. — It gives regulators a simple, topic‑and‑time‑based rule to unlock information markets without igniting anti‑gambling backlash, potentially improving risk management and public forecasting.

Sources

How Limit “Gambling”?
Robin Hanson 2025.10.09 100% relevant
Hanson’s criteria—"allow long‑term technical topics that matter"; restrict "easy to make, quickly resolved" lay bets—offered as a policy template.
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