Likely‑voter definition swings polls

Poll margins can change substantially depending on how pollsters define 'likely voters' (for example: registered voters = +8 D, strict likely voters = +12 D, loose likely voters = +10 D, an old screen = +16 D). These operational choices bias which demographics are weighted (younger people, soft partisans) and therefore reshape the public story about who is winning. — Poll methodology (the specific likely‑voter screen used) is itself a political lever because it changes headlines, campaign tactics, and public expectations about the race.