Likely‑voter screens mask enthusiasm shifts

Polls that report 'likely voters' can substantially lag changes in public sentiment because their screening algorithms freeze turnout assumptions and rely on older behavioral signals. A small number of highly weighted polls or different RV/LV screens can mute what would otherwise be a big shift in a national average. — This matters because reporters, campaigns, and the public can misread the size and timing of political swings — affecting strategy, media narratives, and voter perceptions ahead of elections.