Likely‑voter screens swing poll leads

Polls that look similar on the surface can imply very different election outcomes because reasonable choices about who counts as a ‘likely voter’ and how undecided respondents are treated materially shift reported margins. YouGov shows the same national data producing plausible Democratic leads between ~8 and ~14 points — and an outlying 16‑point estimate that relies on multiple pro‑Democratic assumptions. — Media narratives and campaign decisions rest on poll margins that are often more methodological artifacts than stable signals, so transparency and plurality of poll specifications matter for democratic accountability.