Likely‑voter screens widen Democratic lead

As pollsters increasingly apply likely‑voter (L.V.) screens rather than registered‑voter (R.V.) samples, the measured generic‑ballot margin can shift materially because Democrats currently perform better in L.V. polls. That methodological shift — not a sudden change in opinion — could make the headline generic‑ballot number look stronger for Democrats even if underlying preferences are stable. — Polling‑screen choices can change perceived electoral fundamentals, altering campaign strategy, resource allocation, and media narratives about control of the Senate.