Likely‑voter vs registered‑voter gap matters

Polls that report different leads for 'likely voters' versus 'registered voters' can signal turnout composition shifts rather than simple changes in preference. A much larger Democratic lead among likely voters (16 points) than among registered voters (6 points) suggests turnout models, enthusiasm, or mobilization differences that could materially change election outcomes and how campaigns allocate resources. — Interpreting this gap reframes poll headlines into actionable questions about who will actually show up, affecting campaign strategy, media coverage, and voters’ perceptions of momentum.