Using multiple leading language models as a quick proxy, Hanson tests whether elites defer to market prices on moralized policy and finds consistent predictions of rejection. He treats LLM consensus as a thermometer for what public and elite discourse will accept.
— If LLMs can anticipate legitimacy barriers, reformers can cheaply pre‑test whether governance innovations will trigger moral backlash before investing political capital.
Robin Hanson
2025.09.02
70% relevant
Hanson aggregates ChatGPT‑5 and the median of seven LLMs to rank historical eras by institutional change and to estimate the next era’s rank, treating model outputs as a proxy forecast akin to using LLMs as a 'thermometer' of expectations.
Robin Hanson
2025.08.20
100% relevant
Hanson: 'five good LLMs agree' that price‑based decisions get denounced on key norms, citing the Policy Analysis Market scandal.
← Back to All Ideas