LLMs Gauge Elite Norms

Updated: 2025.09.02 1M ago 2 sources
Using multiple leading language models as a quick proxy, Hanson tests whether elites defer to market prices on moralized policy and finds consistent predictions of rejection. He treats LLM consensus as a thermometer for what public and elite discourse will accept. — If LLMs can anticipate legitimacy barriers, reformers can cheaply pre‑test whether governance innovations will trigger moral backlash before investing political capital.

Sources

Big Institution Changes by 2075
Robin Hanson 2025.09.02 70% relevant
Hanson aggregates ChatGPT‑5 and the median of seven LLMs to rank historical eras by institutional change and to estimate the next era’s rank, treating model outputs as a proxy forecast akin to using LLMs as a 'thermometer' of expectations.
We Need Elites To Value Adaption
Robin Hanson 2025.08.20 100% relevant
Hanson: 'five good LLMs agree' that price‑based decisions get denounced on key norms, citing the Policy Analysis Market scandal.
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