Concentrated year‑over‑year manufacturing payroll declines (here: −75k with December −8k, centered in autos, wood, electronics) function as an early, high‑leverage political and economic indicator: they presage local labor market stress, bargaining shifts, and rapid reallocation pressures that can drive regional politics, trade policy, and industrial planning within months.
— Using short‑run manufacturing payroll changes as a policy signal helps governments and analysts target re‑training, supply‑chain resilience, and permitting reforms before losses cascade into long‑term deindustrialization and political dislocation.
Tyler Cowen
2026.01.09
100% relevant
Tyler Cowen’s Jan 9 post reporting U.S. manufacturing payrolls down 75,000 over the last year and sectoral losses concentrated in transportation (autos), wood, and electronics/electrical manufacturing.
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