Market Gains as Welfare Signal

Financial‑market jumps immediately after a political event can serve as rapid, publicly available indicators of expected economic improvement for a population, but they are noisy proxies that reflect investor expectations, not final distributional outcomes. Policymakers and ethicists should treat sharp equity or FX moves as an early empirical input into debates over the consequences of contentious interventions, while requiring follow‑up on real consumption, employment, and access measures. — Using market reactions as a timely, empirical signal reframes debates about the costs and benefits of extrajudicial or coercive regime actions by adding quantifiable, near‑term welfare evidence to moral and legal arguments.