Market reforms yield slow payoffs

Using a cross‑country panel of identified reform episodes and timing‑aware methods, Hartley and Wheaton find little immediate GDP gain, some short‑run adjustment costs, and growing, persistent per‑capita GDP benefits that only become economically meaningful after several years. The pattern is robust across alternative reform indices and model specifications. — Policymakers and voters should expect and plan for political and social short‑term pain when instituting market reforms because the economic benefits typically accrue slowly and only materialize over years.