Markets Price AI Productivity Gains

Financial markets can be used as a real‑time, forward‑looking measure of AI’s effect on productivity by relating firms’ stock sensitivities to an AI index with the firm share of software engineering payroll. Using this cross‑sectional mapping, researchers estimate large, durable software‑engineering productivity gains and translate them into percent gains in GDP. — If markets systematically encode AI productivity effects, regulators, fiscal planners, and investors can use market signals to track AI’s macroeconomic impact and calibrate policy responses in real time.