Markets Signal Early‑Vote Momentum

When prediction markets diverge from contemporaneous polls in primary races, the gap can reflect traders pricing in concrete turnout signals — for example, unusually high early voting totals, mobilizing endorsements, or runoff risk — that polls either miss or lag. Treating markets as an auxiliary, real‑time indicator of turnout dynamics can improve short‑term forecasting and inform resource allocation. — If prediction markets systematically encode early‑vote and mobilization information that polls miss, journalists, campaigns, and analysts should incorporate market prices when assessing close primaries.