Missile‑First Wars Rewrite Deterrence

Modern conflicts where precision missiles, cheap cruise threats, and autonomous aerial systems dominate change how states deter and defend. If missile strikes can reliably penetrate defenses or threaten infrastructure and shipping, traditional naval and carrier‑centric deterrence and forward basing models need rethinking. — Reframing the Iran conflict as the first 'missile‑first' war forces policymakers to reassess force posture, maritime chokepoint security, and escalation ladders with China and others.