Missile Tests Aren’t Reliability Stats

Counting intercept 'hits' over all test attempts across decades doesn’t estimate a deployed system’s reliability. Developmental missile tests are iterative, change hardware and software between rounds, and often probe subsystems with goals unrelated to end‑state intercept probability. Proper reliability assessment must condition on configuration and test purpose, not a raw batting average. — This corrects a common media and political error in evaluating missile defense and other complex systems, improving fact‑checking standards and defense debates.