Modeling as Pandemic Policy Accelerator

Early, high‑visibility epidemic models that pool data across jurisdictions can act as accelerants for large‑scale interventions by producing timely, dramatic counterfactual claims (e.g., 'lockdowns were necessary and sufficient'). Those models produce powerful policy effects but also compress complex behavioural change into intervention dates and rely on fixed epidemiological parameters. — If models routinely become decision engines in crises, we need governance rules for model provenance, sensitivity disclosure, and institutional checks to avoid lock‑in on fragile assumptions.