Moderation advantage fell to ~3 points

Using a Wins Above Replacement metric and 2026 tallies, the author estimates that being a moderate improved a Democratic candidate’s general‑election performance by up to about three percentage points, smaller than prior cycles but still decisive in close Senate races. The piece ties that quantitative gap to specific contests (e.g., Mississippi, Alaska) and argues the moderation boost materially contributed to the 2026 Democratic majority. — If moderation reliably buys a few percentage points in general elections, nomination rules and primary turnout are high‑stakes levers for who governs and whether parties prioritize electability or movement goals.