Mortgage‑and‑Gain Lock‑In

Updated: 2026.01.12 17D ago 1 sources
Home owners are 'locked in' when legacy below‑market mortgages and large unrealized capital gains make selling or moving financially punitive. That combined effect reduces listings, depresses transaction volumes, and pushes prices up because sellers rationally refuse to list at prevailing market terms. — Framing housing constraints as a lock‑in problem reframes policy from demand stimulation to targeted supply unblocking (mortgage portability, capital‑gains indexing/deferral), changing where federal intervention is likely to be effective.

Sources

The Housing Market’s Lock-In Effects
Paul H. Kupiec & Alex J. Pollock 2026.01.12 100% relevant
Article cites pre‑2022 mortgages at historical lows and 1997‑era capital‑gains exclusions alongside sharply lower existing‑home sale volumes as the empirical basis for the lock‑in claim.
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