MRP Signals UK Party Collapse

A new multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) model reportedly projects Reform UK winning roughly 339 seats, with Labour and Conservatives collapsing to second and third. If the modeler’s 2024 accuracy repeats, this is an early-warning indicator of a party-system rupture rather than a mid-cycle blip. — Treating high-quality MRP as a forward-looking stress test reframes UK politics around the plausibility of a populist replacement of legacy parties.

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Labour is Imploding

Matt Goodwin 2025.09.25 74% relevant

The post claims new polls put Labour at 16% (historic low), Reform UK in first place, and Keir Starmer at net −42 approval with most voters saying he should resign—evidence consistent with a party‑system rupture anticipated by earlier MRP projections of a Reform surge. It names Ipsos-MORI and contrasts Starmer vs. Nigel Farage as preferred PM.

The coming earthquake

Matt Goodwin 2025.08.22 100% relevant

ElectionMaps’ MRP projection cited by Goodwin (Reform 339; Labour 112; Conservatives 35).