NATO Ban Bargain

Trump’s negotiators pivoted from a ceasefire-first demand to a framework that codifies Ukraine’s exclusion from NATO and bars NATO basing, which brought Putin to the Alaska summit. Using alliance non-expansion as diplomatic currency reframes the peace terms and alliance credibility. — This tests NATO’s open-door norm, reshapes European security guarantees, and signals to partners how U.S. commitments can be traded in grand-bargain diplomacy.