Cohort fertility is the gold standard but arrives decades late. By modeling the right‑tail of age‑specific fertility rates to fill in remaining births, we can project completed cohort fertility up to roughly 15 years early and publish comparable estimates across countries.
— This offers a more stable, tempo‑free fertility metric for current policy and media debates, avoiding misreads driven by period TFR timing swings.
Inquisitive Bird
2025.05.27
100% relevant
The article demonstrates projecting Sweden’s 1985 cohort and promises downloadable projections for 33 countries using age‑specific fertility rate tails.
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