Non‑MAGA Republican abstention helped Democrats

Post‑election polling shows a sizable share of non‑MAGA Republicans either stayed home (34%) or split their vote, while independents broke nearly two‑to‑one for Democrats. That pattern — turnout collapse among a weak segment of a party combined with an independent swing — can flip tight House maps into lopsided margins. — If replicated, this dynamic implies that partisan coalitions are being reshaped more by who doesn't vote than by who changes minds, altering strategies for mobilization and messaging going into future cycles.