Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, is said to be investing $2 billion in Polymarket, an Ethereum‑based prediction market. Tabarrok says NYSE will use Polymarket data to sharpen forecasts, and points to decision‑market pilots like conditional markets on Tesla’s compensation vote.
— Wall Street’s embrace of prediction markets could normalize market‑based forecasting and decision tools across business and policy, shifting how institutions aggregate and act on information.
Scott Alexander
2026.01.13
68% relevant
Astral Codex Ten documents Polymarket’s move onshore, growth to billions in monthly volume and the rise of market founders as wealthy players—this connects to the existing note that exchange/Wall‑Street capital is entering prediction markets, shifting who governs them and raising competition/regulatory questions.
msmash
2026.01.07
90% relevant
The article concerns Polymarket specifically (the same platform referenced in the existing idea). It reports a concrete governance event—the platform refusing to pay a large wager over whether the US 'invaded' Venezuela—illustrating operational, legal and reputational risks predicted by the existing item about Polymarket and exchange‑backed prediction markets.
Alex Tabarrok
2025.10.09
100% relevant
ICE’s announced $2B investment and claim that NYSE will use Polymarket data, as reported in the article.