Oil‑reserve buffers set recession clock

Countries' strategic oil stocks and the weeks‑long transit time of tankers create a predictable delay between a shipping‑chokepoint shock (eg, the Strait of Hormuz) and visible economic distress. Once those buffers — which J.P. Morgan and national agencies can estimate — run out, refineries must cut output and shortages propagate rapidly, setting a near‑term window for recession risk tied to diplomacy success or failure. — This framing turns the abstract risk of ‘an oil shock’ into a timeable political and economic clock that makes peace talks, reserve releases, and logistics policy immediate levers for governments and markets.