Oil Shocks Aren’t 1970s‑Style

Modern economies are less oil‑intensive per unit of GDP, and central banks have stronger anti‑inflation credibility, so a Middle‑East driven oil spike is less likely to produce the prolonged stagflation of the 1970s—though control of chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can still impose large, asymmetric geopolitical costs on global trade. At the same time, separate financial vulnerabilities—especially inflated AI valuations—pose a more probable route to a market collapse than a classic energy‑driven macro shock. — Reframes how policymakers and markets should prioritize risks: treat geopolitically concentrated supply shocks as strategic security problems while treating AI investment concentration as the more immediate financial‑stability threat.