Because democracies crowdsource calibrated probability estimates publicly, autocracies misallocate resources. Prediction markets and tournaments harness dispersed knowledge, outcompeting secretive, hierarchical analysis.
— Frames information-production advantages as strategic, informing debates on transparency, markets for information, and resilience against authoritarian rivals.
Nate Silver
2026.10.15
75% relevant
Nate Silver’s FLIPR is an instance of public, model‑based election forecasting: it publishes poll averages (drawn from the New York Times poll database), probabilistic outputs for every 2026 gubernatorial race, and time‑series changes—concrete practices that exemplify the idea that open forecasting can inform voters, journalists, and policymakers and discipline public debate with quantitative expectations.
Nate Silver
2026.10.03
86% relevant
FLIPR is an example of transparent, public-facing probabilistic election forecasting: Silver publishes methodology, polling averages with adjustments, and tens of thousands of simulations, which operationalizes the 'open forecasting' idea by making uncertainty, assumptions, and conditional probabilities visible to voters and institutions.
Robin Hanson
2025.08.20
82% relevant
Hanson argues prediction-market governance (futarchy) can’t gain traction because elites reject price signals on moral issues, directly engaging the claim that open, probabilistic forecasting can institutionalize better decisions in democracies.
Santi Ruiz
2025.06.25
100% relevant
The conversation asks which technologies give democracies an advantage, highlighting crowd-based forecasting and judgment improvement.