Open models blunt AI coercion

If significant AI capability becomes available as downloadable, open‑weight models, states’ prior ability to wield proprietary AI and compute choke points as economic leverage will be reduced. Markets will likely split into a low‑cost commoditized tier for routine uses and a narrow premium tier for cutting‑edge needs, making coercive export controls less effective. — This reframes AI geopolitics: national power depends not just on domestic R&D but on whether models remain locked behind access gates or become widely reproducible.