Instead of relying on household surveys that can undercount hidden populations, use operational inflow/outflow data—border apprehensions, visa overstays, deportations, mortality and emigration—to model the stock of undocumented residents. Applying this method yields a much higher estimate (about 22 million vs. ~11 million) for 1990–2016, even under conservative assumptions.
— If survey methods systematically undercount the undocumented, immigration policy and resource planning are being made on a mismeasured baseline.
Christopher F. Rufo
2025.12.03
52% relevant
Rufo cites hard totals (e.g., '53 million foreign‑born') and historical baselines; that emphasis on counting and the difficulty of measuring the undocumented population connects to the existing point that operational flows and administrative data often yield very different estimates than household surveys.
Freddie Sayers
2025.12.03
72% relevant
Both pieces focus on measurement methodology shaping migration claims: the article highlights how the ONS’s new method for counting emigrants (scanning for people who 'go dark') injects uncertainty, echoing the existing idea that operational data and method choices materially change migration estimates and policy conclusions.
2018.09.21
100% relevant
MIT–Yale study (PLOS ONE, 2018) combining apprehensions, overstay data, deportations, and demographics to estimate 22.1M undocumented immigrants.
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