Outsiders Build Better Election Models

Silver argues independent analysts often produce more accurate, transparent election models than academics because they’re disciplined by real‑time prediction markets, calibration, and public scrutiny. He cites Bonica/Grumbach’s critique of WAR as heavy on rhetoric and light on sound method. — This challenges deference to academic authority in live forecasting and pushes media toward models that are open, testable, and out‑of‑sample validated.