Cross‑country models show high public‑sector wage premiums pull productive workers out of firms, reducing job creation and GDP. In Greece, a 10% cut to public wages raises private productivity by 3.8%, cuts unemployment 7.3%, and lifts GDP 1.3%; in Brazil, trimming the premium from 19% to 15% and aligning pensions boosts long‑run output by 11.2%. Public pay structure is acting like a growth tax in poorer states.
— It reframes civil‑service pay as macro policy, not just fairness, with large stakes for unemployment and productivity.
Alex Tabarrok
2025.08.27
90% relevant
The post directly extends this thesis by contrasting India/Brazil/Italy-style rent-laden public pay with Singapore’s market-rate civil service, arguing rents create queues and drain private productivity while competitive pay avoids those distortions.
Alex Tabarrok
2025.08.25
100% relevant
Geromichalos & Kospentaris (Greece) and Cavalcanti & Santos (Brazil) counterfactual results cited in the article.
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