Partisan Economic Sentiment as Early Signal

Rapid, party‑specific shifts in how voters assess the national economy (measured weekly or monthly in high‑quality panels) can precede and predict short‑term changes in partisan approval and electoral momentum. A >15‑point swing among one party, even if the national aggregate is unchanged, is an early indicator that that party’s coalition cohesion or enthusiasm has shifted and may affect campaign strategy and legislative bargaining. — Tracking party‑level economic sentiment provides policymakers, campaigns and journalists an early, quantitative signal of coalition stability and near‑term political risk.