Partisan Inputs Skew Civil‑War Forecasts

Forecasts of domestic conflict can look rigorous but rest on selective, politically skewed inputs. If the 'evidence' is primarily partisan warnings, probabilistic math will amplify bias rather than insight. Risk models for social unrest need audited source lists, not just eye‑catching percentages. — It pushes media and policymakers to scrutinize the evidentiary base of high-stakes social‑risk forecasts before they shape public narratives and policy.