Persistent 'Nothing‑Burger' Wars

Small, recurring hostilities (what Cowen calls 'nothing burger' wars) will multiply: they rarely escalate to decisive outcomes, instead festering indefinitely and prompting local containment strategies. Nuclear proliferation and high costs of decisive victory make large, order‑creating wars less likely, so states and regions tolerate repeated low‑intensity clashes. — If accurate, this shifts policy focus from preparing for large decisive wars to managing continual regional frictions, resilience, and institution‑building short of global settlement.