A new political‑economy analysis argues the key growth penalty comes from 'personalist' regimes—where decisions concentrate around a single leader—rather than from autocracy per se. Institutionalized systems, whether democratic or not, preserve property rights and predictability and thus grow faster. The piece warns that Xi’s China is drifting personalist and that Trump’s governing style risks importing this growth‑killing pattern to the U.S.
— This recasts the democracy-versus-autocracy debate into a testable focus on institutionalization, changing how voters, investors, and policymakers assess leadership risks.
Alex Tabarrok
2025.10.15
40% relevant
By showing that increases in economic freedom are more durable when ratified by democratic institutions (e.g., Peru’s post‑Fujimori consolidation), the article complements the claim that institutionalized (non‑personalist) systems outperform personalist regimes.
Noah Smith
2025.08.27
80% relevant
The author frames recent purges of senior defense/intel leaders and direct pressure on firms as hallmarks of personalist rule, arguing this U.S. drift risks the same growth penalties seen in personalist regimes.
Jordan Weissmann
2025.08.26
70% relevant
The piece argues that subordinating an independent central bank to a leader’s preferences (Erdogan’s Turkey; Trump’s attempted removal of Lisa Cook and pressure on Powell) risks higher inflation and economic dysfunction—an instance of concentrated, personalist control undermining predictable, growth‑friendly institutions.
Matthew Yglesias
2025.08.21
100% relevant
Christopher Blattman, Scott Gehlbach, and Zeyang Yu’s paper on personalist regimes’ growth penalty, applied by Matthew Yglesias to China under Xi and to Trump’s 'personalist' governance.
Nathan Cofnas
2025.04.04
62% relevant
Cofnas says the GOP has become a 'low‑IQ cult of personality,' producing anti‑market tariffs and populist economics that will 'halt the American economic juggernaut'—a mechanism consistent with how personalist movements erode predictable, growth‑friendly policy.