Personality‑Tied Voter Realignment

Electoral shifts that are driven primarily by a charismatic leader’s personal brand (rather than durable policy or institutional changes) may produce large short‑term vote swings but are more likely to be reversible once the leader exits or loses salience. Tracking whether minority and blue‑collar shifts persist after the leader’s influence wanes is therefore crucial to distinguishing lasting realignment from ephemeral personalization effects. — If minority defections from one party are mainly personality‑driven, parties should focus on institutionalizing policy gains rather than relying on leader charisma; pollsters and strategists must therefore separate candidate effects from structural realignment in forecasting and strategy.