Placebo Outcomes Expose Neighborhood Bias

Run causal models on outcomes that moves cannot plausibly change (e.g., birth length) to test whether observed 'effects' are actually selection artifacts. Eshaghnia shows that substituting birth length for adult earnings reproduces Chetty–Hendren–style exposure gradients, with stronger alignment the earlier the move—something a true causal neighborhood effect on earnings shouldn’t mimic on an inborn trait. — If marquee neighborhood-effects results fail placebo checks, policymakers must revisit relocation and 'opportunity mapping' initiatives and demand stronger identification before scaling.