Placebo Windows for Cohort Causality

Updated: 2025.08.24 1M ago 1 sources
Use pre-birth 'placebo' exposure windows to test whether relationships between early-life conditions and adult fertility are real or just trend artifacts. Comparing true exposure effects to placebo effects provides a simple falsification step that strengthens cohort-based claims. — This raises methodological standards for policy-relevant demography, making causal claims about fertility drivers more trustworthy before they guide interventions.

Sources

From Longevity to Low Fertility: Evidence Across Countries
Davide Piffer 2025.08.24 100% relevant
The article averages life expectancy and GDP in years −19 to −1 relative to birth as placebo exposures and contrasts them with 0–14/18/25 windows in a mixed-effects framework.
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