Plurality Rules Split Opposition

Updated: 2025.10.14 8D ago 4 sources
New York City’s general election lacks a runoff, so multiple non-left challengers trap each other in a prisoner's dilemma: staying in preserves their small chance but practically ensures a 36–37% plurality win for the socialist frontrunner. Strong, targeted GOTV can then beat a larger but fragmented electorate. Primary RCV without general‑election RCV creates an asymmetry that rewards cohesive blocs over broad but uncoordinated opposition. — It shows how election design, not just ideology, decides control of major cities and suggests reforms or explicit coordination are needed to avoid minority‑plurality governance.

Sources

Portland’s Troubled Proportional Representation Experiment
Jack Santucci 2025.10.14 45% relevant
Both pieces show how electoral system design shapes real outcomes: the cited idea treats plurality/RCV rules as structuring who wins, while this article shows STV/PR can still fail without majority coalitions—extending the 'rules matter' frame from election results to governing capacity.
New York Braces for a Mayor Mamdani
Nicole Gelinas 2025.10.05 92% relevant
New York’s general election lacks a runoff and multiple anti‑Mamdani candidates (Andrew Cuomo on a third‑party line, Curtis Sliwa, plus Eric Adams remaining on the ballot despite withdrawing) split the opposition vote, making a plurality win by Zohran Mamdani likely—exactly the dynamic described in this idea.
New York’s Mayoral Dilemma
2025.09.03 95% relevant
The piece argues Mamdani likely wins if Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa all stay in, because NYC’s general election lacks a runoff—creating a prisoner's dilemma where fragmented opposition enables a 36–37% plurality victory.
Zohran Mamdani’s Challengers Are Locked in a Prisoner’s Dilemma
John Ketcham 2025.09.01 100% relevant
American Pulse polls (Mamdani ~37%, Cuomo ~25%, Adams ~11%, Sliwa ~17%), DSA registering 37,000 voters in two weeks, and three viable challengers refusing to drop out in a no‑runoff general.
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