Split Ticket’s WAR metric suggests moderates overperform by a few points after controlling for incumbency and district baseline, but Silver argues rising straight‑ticket voting has reduced how much candidate ideology moves outcomes. The median voter still matters, yet the lever is weaker in the 2020s.
— If candidate effects are shrinking, parties may need to rethink primary strategy and resource allocation toward fundamentals over ideological positioning.
Matthew Yglesias
2025.09.17
68% relevant
Yglesias argues that headline‑grabbing immigration 'accommodation' speeches don’t help because they raise salience on an opponent‑owned issue, echoing the finding that candidate ideology/moves matter less in the current environment; moderation’s payoff is smaller and context‑dependent.
Nate Silver
2025.08.20
100% relevant
Silver: these relationships are 'noisy' and 'probably becoming less important as political partisanship devours everything.'
Nate Silver
2025.07.29
60% relevant
Silver argues Trump is 'impervious to consequences' and that the Epstein frenzy may not dent voter support, aligning with the thesis that in an era of high polarization and straight‑ticket voting, candidate-specific scandals have diminished electoral impact.