Policing pullback explains 2020 homicides

A plausible account for the dramatic 2020 increase in urban shootings is a rapid change in policing practice and deterrence following late‑May protests (e.g., after George Floyd’s death), rather than seasonal weather, lockdowns, or gun purchases alone. That hypothesis stresses timing (surge beginning the last week of May), concentration (large cities, shootings vs. other street crime), and mechanism (reduced proactive enforcement and deterrence), and is empirically testable with arrest, deployment, and incident‑level data. — If true, it changes policy remedies from only addressing gun access or economic conditions to recalibrating urban policing tactics, deployment strategies, and accountability frameworks in ways that affect minority‑neighborhood safety.