Political Bank Runs

A political bank run is a rapid, nearly simultaneous withdrawal of elite and mass support from a regime that collapses not because of a decisive military defeat but because the informal credit (legitimacy, obedience, cooperation) evaporates. Like a financial run, the process is contagious, hard to forecast from outside, and can end a powerful state quickly if backstops (willing force, credible guarantees) are absent. — Framing regime collapse as a 'political bank run' shifts policy focus to early‑warning signals of legitimacy withdrawal and to whether external actors have credible, enforceable backstops — a crucial lens for interventions, alliance commitments, and assessments of authoritarian durability.