Political culture predicts homicide surge

County‑level analysis of CDC death‑certificate data shows that homicide increases in 2020 were larger in jurisdictions with certain political cultures (Democratic‑leaning counties saw larger year‑over‑year increases than Republican‑leaning ones), even after checking for links to COVID deaths and local gun‑sales proxies. The spike was concentrated among demographic groups that already faced the highest homicide risk. — If local political culture predicts violence spikes, policymakers must consider how governance, policing norms, and community institutions interact with crime dynamics — not just aggregate national factors.