Poll‑weighting shapes perceived momentum

Poll averages do more than summarize; the algorithmic choices (weighting for recency, sample size, pollster reliability, and likely‑voter vs registered‑voter samples) materially change which party appears to be gaining or losing ground. Small clusters of very recent or large‑sample polls can move the headline number even when underlying public sentiment is noisy. — Understanding how poll‑weighting works matters because it influences media narratives, campaign resource allocation, and voter perceptions of momentum in a way that can be self‑fulfilling.