Polls Underestimate Enthusiasm‑Driven Turnout

Preelection polling averages can capture the direction of an election but systematically understate margins when one party’s supporters are measurably more enthusiastic and more likely to respond to surveys. That combination—enthusiasm gap + response bias—produces signed polling errors that appear across statewide and aggregate House measures. — If polls routinely understate margins where turnout is asymmetric, journalists, campaigns, and the public should treat margin estimates (not just direction) with calibrated skepticism and demand clearer uncertainty communication from pollsters.