Polls Understate Democratic Margins

Preelection polls in 2026 largely predicted who would win but tended to undercount how large the Democrats’ advantage would be. The shortfall suggests systematic issues (likely‑voter models, turnout assumptions, sampling or weighting) that matter for interpreting poll forecasts and media narratives. — If polls routinely understate margins, that shifts how newsrooms, campaigns and voters form expectations and trust, with knock‑on effects for turnout, concession timing, and claims about poll legitimacy.