Population and Connectivity Drive Military Tech

New analysis by Turchin et al. finds that global population size, interregional connectivity, and enabling base technologies (like iron metallurgy and horse riding) strongly predict changes in military technology. In contrast, state-level variables such as polity size, territory, or governance sophistication show little predictive power. — This challenges state-capacity narratives and suggests defense innovation is propelled more by demography, networks, and foundational tech than by specific regime traits, reshaping how strategists think about military advantage.