Population Growth Barely Affects Warming

A new preprint that augments the DICE climate-economy model (adding endogenous innovation, age structure, and land‑use emissions) finds that keeping global fertility at replacement yields a much larger population by 2200 but almost no change in long‑run temperature paths. The larger population boosts innovation and quickly overcomes a short, relative dip in per‑capita GDP from higher near‑term emissions. This undercuts climate‑based antinatalism and reframes fertility as compatible with decarbonization. — It challenges the premise that fewer births are a meaningful lever on climate, shifting debate toward innovation and decoupling rather than population restraint.