Post‑hoc Certainty in Policy Debates

Welfare arguments often supply an 'obvious' explanation after results arrive—cash works in Kenya because capital is scarce, or it doesn’t because institutions are weak; cash fails in the U.S. because recipients struggle, or succeeds because systems are functional. Without ex‑ante predictions, any outcome can be rationalized. The fix is to demand preregistered theories and tests that would have distinguished these stories beforehand. — It warns that motivated, after‑the‑fact narratives can steer social policy unless we tighten standards for advance prediction and adjudication.