Postponement Won't Save Birthrates

The common narrative that younger cohorts are merely postponing childbearing and will 'catch up' by age 45 is empirically fragile: period measures like the total fertility rate assume future age‑patterns mirror today’s older women, an assumption weakened by polls showing rising hesitancy and by economic constraints that persist into later reproductive ages. Relying on postponement as a policy salve risks under‑preparing for sustained low fertility and its fiscal and social consequences. — If postponement proves false, policymakers and political narratives that assume demographic recovery will be blindsided — affecting planning for labor, pensions, immigration, and family policy.