Poverty Decline Was Mostly Within Cohorts

Using representative cross‑sectional and panel data from five countries responsible for roughly 75% of the global reduction in extreme poverty (1990–2015), the NBER paper finds that poverty fell largely as overlapping birth cohorts improved over time, not because younger cohorts were uniformly better off. The data also show substantial short‑term churn — many households move in and out of poverty — and that while migration, sectoral moves and changes in female labor participation contributed, most exits occurred without those transitions. — If poverty reduction is mainly a within‑cohort, high‑churn process, policy should shift from only structural or cohort‑replacement strategies toward interventions that help households climb a 'slippery slope' and stabilize gains.